Taking a look at the UK residential market we can see the sales market is resilient. Our data shows (accurate as of the end of July):
• The supply of properties has increased around 5% higher than 2022 on a like-for-like comparison between January and July.
• Demand has fallen by 16% in 2023 but is only 8% lower than the pre-pandemic year.
• Regarding the stock shortage, the increase in supply and the reduction of demand has actually abated at the higher levels of transactions but this doesn’t apply to properties under £200,000.
- • As there are 78,000 fewer properties in the UK that are under £200,000 than there were in 2019.
• The Time to Sell has risen slightly at an average of about 61 days, but this is 18% lower than pre-pandemic norms.
• The time from a sale agreed to an actual completion is down slightly by a few days over the last couple of months, but it's still 4.1 months.
• Exchanges in 2023 have fallen by about 20%.
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- • The mini budget has had an impact on this situation, as we've observed a significant decrease in completions during Q2 of 2023. This decrease is directly linked to the fact that the Sales Agreed didn't materialise in the fourth quarter of 2022, which would have translated into the completions we expected to see in Q2 2023.
• Asking prices are rising both at an instruction level and at an exchange level however transfer prices have started to fall slightly but in very low single digits.
• The rate of Fall Throughs has risen slightly year on year but there has been less volume of Fall Throughs than last year and they're pretty similar to pre-pandemic levels.
• But of the 26% of properties that are falling through, 74% are still transacting and those that do fall through tend to go back on the market in the same cycle and don’t get withdrawn.
• 2023 price changes have increased by double in comparison to 2022, however in comparison to 2019, they are at the same level.• Looking at the low end of the market, it makes commercial sense for people to try to buy.
• The top end of the market is in good stead with Sales Agreed in London up on last year until very recently.
• The cost of living crisis is causing the middle market to be squeezed.