The MoverAlerts team headed down to Brighton for a packed three days at the British Association of Removers (BAR) annual conference.
To kick off, Sales Development Executive, Matthew Iskandar and Account Manager, Marlon Walters got stuck into a spot of healthy competition at the activity day that had Axe Throwing, Go Karting and Clay Pigeon events.
When day two came around, in the morning the team enjoyed the industry sessions that saw the handover of the Presidential Chain of Office from Mark Chudley to Mike Andrews and then Mike going on to discuss the BAR’s strategy, its influence and reach in the board strategy.
There were also talks from John Herriman, Chief Exec CTSI who shed some insight on how they can work closely with businesses on supporting consumer standards and Vicky Pryce Chief Economic Advisor, CEBR who outlined that despite all the impacting factors there are reasons for business confidence, including global supply chain pressures and costs easing.
The afternoon consisted of more insightful talks from Martin McTague of the FSB who delivered the ‘succession planning’ session on why planning for succession is vital and what the keys to a successful exit are. Then Laura and Scott of Backhouse Jones presented a regulation update, explaining why a robust disciplinary process underpins driver breaches and compliance. They also covered the new ‘guide’ to maintaining roadworthiness that must be followed, changes to PMI sheets and DDR sheets, brake testing requirements and external maintenance contracts.
On the final day, along with the Young Movers Group update and use of social media session, our very own Sales Development Executive, Matthew Iskandar gave the housing market update that outlined:
Historical Transaction Volumes for owner occupiers
- - Since 2014, the UK has seen about 1.2 million transactions per annum
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- - In 2020, due to the initial pandemic lockdown affecting specifically the first 6 months of transactions, they fell by 11% on the prior year
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- - The Stamp Duty holiday in 2021 led to a 41% increase in the volume of transactions
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- - 2022 saw a “return to normal” after high transaction volumes in 2021 and saw a decrease of 16%, however, it’s worth noting that this is still 5.6% up on 2019
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Historical Supply Volumes for owner occupiers
- - Supply has risen for the first year from 2018 to 2022
- - In 2021, 1.48m properties came to the market for sale
- - In 2022, this had risen by 5% to 1.6m properties
- - In 2023 Q1, supply is 5% up on 2022, however, this still remains 6% short of the pre-pandemic volumes in 2019
*Supply is defined as the volume of new properties coming to the market for sale
Historical Demand Volumes
- - Demand has fallen from 2021 to 2022 but this was to be expected, given that Stamp Duty is now paid at full rates and demand in 2022 was in fact still marginally up on the “norm” of 2019
- In 2023 to-date, demand is falling even further, however, this is still only 9% down on the pre-pandemic 2019
*Demand is defined as the volume of sales agreed on UK properties
Historical Property Prices
- - New Instruction prices have risen yearly from 2019 to 2023
- - In 2019, the average property was listed for £340k, by 2023 Q1, this is now at £420k, an increase of 24%
- - Exchange prices have risen again in 2023
- - In 2019, the average property was exchanged for £295k, by 2023 Q1, this is now at £360k. This shows an increase of 23% on 2019
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Forecast Volumes
Given historical transactions plus the supply and demand activities we know are in the pipeline, our view is:
- - 1.5m New Instructions in 2023, which represents a fall of 2.5% on the prior year of 2022 and is also a contraction of 5.8% on 2019
- - 1.1m Sales Agreed in 2023 which represents a fall of 10.5% on the prior year of 2022 and is also a contraction of 7.7% on 2019
Transaction Changes
In order to establish useful information on changes in 2023 transactions, we compared 2023 transactions to 2019 (pre-pandemic) transactions and found:
- - Property prices - “premium” property transactions are more likely because higher value properties (£700k+) are 20% more likely to be sold in 2023 and conversely lower-priced properties (less than £200k) are between 10-20% less likely to be sold in 2023
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- - Property types - flats and terraced housing is slightly more likely to sell in 2023 than in 2019 which is almost entirely down to the London market being so “hot” compared to prior years
- - Even though Detached and Semi-Detached housing is now less likely to be involved in a home move, it is only down by 3%
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- - Agent Type – Sales in 2023 have been less likely to be made by online agents, with sellers preferring a more traditional route
- UK Regions
- - Homemovers are about 10% more likely to be in the North East
- - They are also slightly less likely to be in the West Midlands and East Midlands
Aside from these points, the profile of the type of people moving in 2022 compared with prior years has not really changed that much
Premium valued properties see a positive increase in 2023
- - £500k+ properties:
- - Properties coming to the market have seen an increase of 42%
- - Sales and Exchanges are up by 42% and 41% respectively in Quarter 1 from 2019
- - £1m+ properties:
- - Property coming to the market is up by 54%
- - Sales and Exchanges are up by 53% and 54% respectively in Quarter 1 from 2019
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Housing process time
- - Whilst property coming to market is reaching Sales Agreed a little slower than this time last year, the average time to progress (from SSTC to Exchange) has started to come down for the first time in 4 years
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- - Looking at Jan – Mar 2023 compared like for like with prior years an increase in Time to Progress of 39% can be seen from 2019, this is a 3% decrease on 2022 and appears to be settling into a new ‘normal’
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- - This only strengthens the point that as removers, you should be speaking to your potential customers at multiple times beyond the initial Sale Agreed, to ensure that you are at the forefront of their minds
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Key Takeaways
- - Supply volumes set to contract on 2022 by 2.5%
- - Demand set to contract by 10% on 2022 levels
- - Transaction volumes to fall back in line with 2019
- - Property prices are at a high, sitting at just over a 23% increase on 2019
To wrap up the conference it was great to attend the traditional Gala Night Dinner to socialise with everyone. If you were lucky enough to win one of our Removers Benevolent Association raffle prizes, send your pictures to us, we’d love to see you enjoying your wine at the Kent vineyard tour or your Michelin Starred seven-course tasting dinner at Galvin La Chapelle.
We were also delighted to be able to congratulate the runners-up MJ Christophers & Son, Richard Healey Removals and Bournes Moves for winning the Domestic Mover of the Year award that was sponsored by us. The award showcases how they excel in providing an excellent “Customer Experience” from a customer making the decision to move right through to post-move follow-up.
Managing Director Wesley Bourne said: "Of course, as owners it is always a special moment when you receive an award, for which we are all immensely proud, but our immediate thoughts and thanks are always concentrated on those that have made that moment possible. The entire team has worked incredibly hard to make our award moments a reality and continue to raise the standards of our company and industry to lead the way. We are truly grateful and proud of you all and we thank you for your continued dedication".
We can’t wait to work with them all to implement their MoverAlerts prizes.
Are you interested in becoming a BAR member or attending next year's event in Glasgow on the 16th-19th of May? Find out more here.